Why a positive era may be upon us.
Growth quality becomes a top priority, while also sustaining infrastructure FAI growth. Our A-share macro team forecasts that China’s real GDP growth will slow down from 6.7-6.9% in 2016 and 2017 to 6.5% in 2018E. The most important thing for the central government in the coming years is to manage debt risk and meet people’s growing expectations of a better life. We expect overall FAI to further decelerate in 2018, given tightened liquidity and stringent government regulations. But we don’t expect infrastructure FAI growth to decelerate significantly in 2018. The central government won’t be keen to pursue further investment growth acceleration in 2018. Infrastructure development is required to satisfy people’s growing expectations of a better life. That said, we expect small-scale infrastructure FAI growth in the areas of public transportation, new energy, smart grid and environment protection to offset the slowdown in growth of large-scale infrastructure investment. We expect infrastructure FAI to grow 15.7% YoY in 2018 vs. 15.8% in 2016 and 15.6% in 2017.
An article in Scientific America has pointed out that empirical research says that, actually, you think you’re more beautiful than you are. We have a deep-seated need to feel good about ourselves and we naturally employ a number of self-enhancing strategies to research into what the call the “above average effect”， or “illusory superiority”， and shown that, for example, 70% of us rate ourselves as above average in leadership, 93% in driving and 85% at getting on well with others—all obviously statistical impossibilities。
Bloomberg reports that SASAC has ordered SOEs to make profits. While thismay not seem targeted at already profitable telecoms, it does align with a farmore commercial message we received from telcos at Access China than themarket seems to believe. Notably we took away: 1) 5G capex should becontained due to a lack of use cases, 2) Operators appear cautiously optimisticon adding subs and the market expanding, and 3) Operators appear more opento cooperation than in the past. These are positive signs, for a sector withaccelerating FCF. We recommend investors to BUY.
Tougher government regulations on PPP projects are expected to dampen infrastructure investment in the short term. Some local governments were involved in misconduct related to public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects, such as initiating projects which were not truly commercial-oriented or using the PPP schemes as a cover to get excessive loans from banks. To prevent debt risk and misuse of fiscal funds, the central government has toughened regulations to reduce fiscal and financial risk for both the public and private sectors. There are new policies regarding the participation of local governments and central SOEs in PPP infrastructure projects. Moreover, the Ministry of Finance has started to evaluate existing PPP infrastructure projects to help clarify the scope of the PPP projects and reject any “fake” ones that offer no real commercial value once the projects are complete and put into use. The evaluation will last until the end of Q1 2018, which will delay existing PPP project starts and also constrain new PPP project additions in the short term. We expect PPP infrastructure investment to remain subdued in the short term but we expect the growth to pick up in 2H18.
We rose tint our memories and put ourselves into self-affirming situations. We become defensive when criticized, and apply negative stereotypes to others to boost our own esteem, we stalk around thinking we’re hot stuff。
Profit growth case appears stronger than market believes.
Overseas expansion might help offset the slowdown in some domestic business growth. Given growth deceleration in the domestic market, we expect the central government to push the Belt and Road Initiative even harder and provide more help for domestic construction companies’ overseas expansion. Infrastructure investment in emerging markets in Belt and Road countries should also see further growth acceleration. Asia is the main destination for China’s investment in Belt and Road infrastructure. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) report on infrastructure development in developing Asian countries projects that total investment needs for transport, power, telecommunications, water supply and sanitation (climate-adjusted estimates) are US$26tn in 2016- 2030, or US$1.7tn p.a., which is more than double the investment it estimated for the period 2010- 2020. The ADB plans to work more closely with the China-backed Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to provide financing for more projects in 2018.
Psychologist and behavioral scientist Nicholas Epley oversaw a key studying into self-enhancement and attractiveness. Rather that have people simply rate their beauty compress with others, he asked them to identify an original photogragh of themselves’ from a lineup including versions that had been altered to appear more and less attractive. Visual recognition, reads the study, is “an automatic psychological process occurring rapidly and intuitively with little or no apparent conscious deliberation”. If the subjects quickly chose a falsely flattering image- which must did- they genuinely believed it was really how they looked. Epley found no significant gender difference in responses. Nor was there any evidence that, those who self-enhance the must (that is, the participants who thought the most positively doctored picture were real) were doing so to make up for profound insecurities. In fact those who thought that the images higher up the attractiveness scale were real directly corresponded with those who showed other makers for having higher self-esteem. “I don’t think the findings that we having have are any evidence of personal delusion”， says Epley. “It’s a reflection simply of people generally thinking well of themselves’. If you are depressed, you won’t be self-enhancing. Knowing the results of Epley ‘s study,it makes sense that why people heat photographs of themselves Viscerally-on one level, they don’t even recognise the person in the picture as themselves, Facebook therefore ,is a self-enhancer’s paradise,where people can share only the most flattering photos, the cream of their wit ,style ,beauty, intellect and lifestyle it’s not that people’s profiles are dishonest,says catalina toma of Wiscon—Madison university ,”but they portray an idealized version of themselves。
The government’s top priority appears to be debt sustainability, and related tothat, SOE reform, and “quality growth”. All of this suggests to us constrainedcapex and greater profit focus at SOEs. There is a valid question though overwhether reform is focused on heavy industry, with the digital economyinvested in aggressively (at telecom’s expense) to transition the economy. It’sbecoming clear to us, that telcos are somewhere in the middle of these twodrives, rather than being used as martyrs for 5G network builds, as almost allinvestors we talk to expects. Operators talk of not building too far ahead ofdemand. As such, while telcos are being priced as though profit growth andFCF will remain elusive, a more commercial story is starting to show through,more aligned with broad SOE and SASAC initiatives.
Central SOE construction companies to benefit from the more stringent environmental regulations. The construction sector underperformed the whole market in 2017. We believe there should be no further downside risks to the share price in the near term with a PER of 6-8x. Any signs of infrastructure investment exceeding market expectations should improve market sentiment and drive a share price rerating. CCC is our top pick in the sector. We believe there should be limited downside risk to its share price, as current price largely reflects market expectations about the financial deleveraging impact on its business growth. We believe CCC, as the industry leader, should benefit from the more stringent environment for PPP infrastructure investment.
26. According to the first paragraph, social psychologist have found that ______.
Other reasons to believe a more commercial era is upon us.
[A] our self-ratings are unrealistically high
With mobile packages as low as RMB18, or RMB99 for “unlimited” data,pricing has become affordable, and the government message now is as much“people are playing too many mobile games”, as it is “prices should comedown”, so state-directed price cuts seem unlikely to be strong. Additionally,headwinds that have held back the sector are ending, e.g. OTT impact onlegacy revenues and network roll outs of FTTH and 4G driving up costs.
[B] illusory superiority is baseless effect
Service revenue growth accelerated to 9% in October and November,suggesting a better market is upon us.
[C] our need for leadership is unnatural
Valuation & risks.
[D] self-enhancing strategies are ineffective
Our China strategy team’s data suggested large China funds were 38%underweight telcos at the end of 3Q, and we think little has changed since.
27. Visual recognition is believed to be people’s______
Extreme underweights in Chinese telecoms suggests when better newscomes, they could rebound sharply, as investors scramble to position. Wethink investors should take the risk of being in early, to avoid the bigger risk ofmissing out. Relative value is unusually attractive as well. We believe there aremultiple catalysts ahead, from a laggard SOE rally, telco sector rotation beingoverdue, a possible bond-to-high-yield equity switch, IoT based growth, a FCFupcycle that is driving double digit FCF yield in 2018 and possible sectorrestructuring. James Wang has Unicom as his top pick, but CT and CM arepreferred for our regional model portfolio, as they have very strong valuestories, and CT a rapid mobile growth story, that can resonate ahead.
[A] rapid watching
[B] conscious choice
[C] intuitive response
[D] automatic self-defence
28. Epley found that people with higher self-esteem tended to______
[A] underestimate their insecurities
[B] believe in their attractiveness
[C] cover up their depressions
[D] oversimplify their illusions
29.The word “Viscerally”(Line 2,para.5) is closest in meaning to_____.